In September this year, the price of polyester filament climbed to a high of 8,000 yuan/ton in the year, but in mid-December, the terminal market remained weak, and the upstream raw materials were in a downward trend compared with last month, and the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent. As of 15th, the price dropped by about 600 yuan/ton -700 yuan/ton compared with this year's high.
While prices are falling, production and sales are also facing great difficulties. The overall sales volume of polyester filament production and marketing in the second half of the year is weak, which is obviously lower than that in the first half of the year. The higher production and marketing in the first half of the year exceeds 500%, and the multiple production and marketing can reach 400%-500%, and then the highest production and marketing in the first half of the year is only maintained at around 200%. Compared with the first half of the year, the accumulation of raw material inventory in factories is still under pressure, but the demand follow-up is relatively slow. Despite the support of "Golden September and Silver 10" in the second half of the year, the quantity decreased compared with the same period of last year. Therefore, under the reduced turnover, the expected motivation of raw materials stocking in downstream factories is insufficient, and they only need to get the goods or purchase according to the order. Moreover, the overall raw material market price is relatively low in the second half of the year, which makes it difficult to effectively promote the enthusiasm of large-scale stocking. Most downstream users only have a stocking cycle of 10-15 days, and the higher ones have a stocking cycle of 20-30 days.
Domestic weaving manufacturers mostly concentrated on low-cost replenishment in the early stage, but their purchasing enthusiasm is not high recently. The production and sales of polyester filament market are under pressure, and the inventory pressure is gradually increasing. According to Longzhong data, the capacity utilization rate of polyester filament industry is obviously higher than that of texturing and weaving fields, while the operating rate of some models in weaving field shows a slight downward trend, and the demand for polyester filament decreases simultaneously.
At present, the supply of PTA has increased, and the capacity utilization rate has risen sharply compared with the previous period. However, there is no obvious improvement in the demand side. Although there is still a demand for replenishment before the holiday, overall, the number of transactions and sustainability need further observation. During the week, the inventory of polyester filament factory accumulated slightly, and the speed of stock removal slowed down obviously, which increased the downward pressure on the market again.
During the week, the grey fabric inventory in the downstream weaving factory climbed again, and the raw material stocking cycle showed a downward trend again due to the narrow reduction of the order days. In the follow-up, the grey fabric inventory pressure may increase, and the order days may be narrowed again. During the week, the starting load of weaving decreased slightly. In terms of regions, the market in Changshu and Haining has recently slowed down, the turnover of four-piece bedding and warm clothing fabrics in winter has slowed down, the inventory of grey fabrics in factories has increased slightly, and raw materials are mostly purchased according to orders. The warp knitting enterprises in Changle area mainly deliver a few kinds of explosive fabrics, and there is no obvious seasonal order in the short term. Considering the poor demand expectation in the future, there is an expectation of production reduction and holiday in the downstream in January. The market order of circular knitting machine in Shaoxing and Zhangcha areas has not been delivered yet, and it is still mainly brushed products. Coupled with the support of foreign trade orders (four seasons orders), the start of circular knitting machine in the week is still stable.
Most factories of water jet enterprises in Shengze, Siyang and Changxing areas still have orders to support them, and the demand for winter warm clothing, especially down jacket fabrics, has increased sharply. However, the demand for home textile industry is flat, and the overall demand for water jet looms has not improved significantly. With the gradual delivery of winter orders, the enthusiasm of textile manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has declined, and the main thing is to digest the inventory. According to the latest data, the inventory of raw materials in textile enterprises decreased by 3.1% from last week, the inventory of grey cloth increased by 1.8% from last month, and the number of days of terminal orders decreased by 3.6% from last month. Next week, the operating rate of the weaving industry is expected to decline.
According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in November, 2023, China's textile and clothing exports totaled US$ 23.665 billion, down 2.96% year-on-year, showing a downward trend for the seventh consecutive month, but the decline was narrower than that of the previous month, increasing by 3.05% month-on-month, from negative to positive. Among them, the export of textiles was US$ 11.12 billion, down 1.3% year-on-year and up 3.8% quarter-on-quarter. The clothing export value was US$ 12.55 billion, down 4.4% year-on-year and up 2.4% quarter-on-quarter. At present, the demand of major overseas exporting countries has not improved significantly, and the poor economic performance of countries in Southeast Asia has dragged down the export of textile raw materials in China. Under the situation of poor demand, the export of textiles and clothing in the later period is still not optimistic.
It is expected that in the short term, if there is no obvious improvement in the cost end support, and the weaving market is relatively mild, it is feared that polyester filaments will still fluctuate slightly downward again.