Recently, the uncertainty of the US tariff policy has continued to escalate, triggering a chain reaction in the fields of international trade and industry. From the freight boom at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach on the west coast of the Pacific Ocean to the tariff impact faced by China's textile industry, the trade chain and industrial development are undergoing complex adjustments.
There is a freight rush at the ports on the west coast of the United States, with importers rushing to transport goods to avoid tariffs
Recently, a large amount of sea cargo has flooded into the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach from the west coast of the Pacific Ocean. To avoid the impact of tariff uncertainties, American importers have initiated a "rush transportation" mode. According to the Southern California Ocean Exchange and the Coast Guard Vessel Tracking Service in the United States, the number of vessels arriving at the port has increased significantly this week, reaching 64 on Friday, 68 on Saturday and 64 on Sunday respectively.
Data shows that this is the peak of container ship arrivals at the two ports since January 2025. The previous highest records were set in July and September 2024. As the busiest container gateways in the United States, the two ports handle over one-third of the country's container imports, and more than half of the goods originate from the west coast of the Pacific Ocean. This wave of freight transportation originated from the fact that American importers urgently increased the volume of container transportation to avoid the 24% tariff increase originally planned to take effect on July 9th.
The port management said that this growth was within expectations. Due to the slow progress of tariff negotiations between the United States and other countries, uncertainties are hard to eliminate and the freight boom will not last long. Moreover, the current container transportation market is sluggish. Although the volume of freight has increased, the ports on the west coast of the United States will not be congested for the time being. At present, the terminal capacity of the Port of Long Beach is about 60%, and that of the Port of Los Angeles is about 70%. Both are well-prepared to cope with the growth of ship traffic. The trend of canceling cargo orders at the Port of Long Beach is also on the decline.
The countdown to "reciprocal tariffs" is on, and the textile industry is under pressure seeking a turning point
With only three weeks left until the end of the moratorium on "reciprocal tariffs", Goldman Sachs 'report warns that if the tariffs are fully implemented, the average production costs of Chinese textile enterprises will increase sharply by 15% to 20%, and the retail prices in the US market may soar by 25% to 30%. Estimates show that the actual effective tariff rate of the United States will reach 18.8% in 2025, far exceeding the initial expectation of 15%. The textile and garment category may face an industry-specific tariff of 25%, which will impact China's annual textile exports of about 42 billion US dollars. During the trade war in 2018, China's textile exports to the United States dropped by 23% in a single month. This time, the tariff intensity is even more severe.
Citibank predicts that the total amount of this round of tariffs will exceed 934.2 billion US dollars, with the textile category accounting for 7.2%. This will reshape the global textile industry landscape and accelerate the rise of the textile industry chain in Southeast Asia. A survey by the China National Textile and Apparel Council shows that 70% of textile enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta region have been under tariff pressure, with the average cost of raw materials rising by 12.8% and the profit margin compressed to a historical low of 3.2%. Take a large textile group in Jiangsu Province as an example. Its orders from the United States account for 35%. The implementation of tariffs will lead to a reduction of 240 million yuan in annual profits.
American brand manufacturers are accelerating the shift of orders to Vietnam and Bangladesh. By May 2025, the loss of textile orders from China had reached 3.8 billion US dollars. If this continues, it may put 150,000 to 200,000 people under pressure for employment by the end of the year. However, there are also opportunities in crises. A group in Shandong avoided tariff barriers by acquiring an American enterprise, and its overseas revenue increased by 27% against the trend in the first quarter of 2025. As of May, China's investment in the textile industry in Vietnam reached 4.7 billion US dollars. A group in Jiangsu Province has built a digital factory, reducing the delivery time of customized products from 45 days to 12 days, and facilitating the industry's advancement towards the high end of the value chain.
The tug-and-pull between political calculation and economic laws
White House documents show that the number of employed people in the US textile industry has been declining for 18 consecutive months, and the unemployment rate reached 5.7% in April 2025. This serves as a footnote to the Trump administration's relentless pursuit of Chinese textiles and leniency towards neighboring countries such as Canada. The deeper logic is that the United States is attempting to promote the return of manufacturing through tariffs, but the Boston Consulting Group report debunts the contradiction: Even if tariffs are raised to 25%, the cost of textiles in the United States is still 32% higher than that in China.
Such contradictory policies have caused great distress to American retailers. Walmart has warned that clothing prices may rise by 40%, hitting low-income groups. Under the game of political calculation and economic laws, the direction of the tariff war is full of uncertainties, and the adjustment of the trade and industrial pattern is still ongoing.
Shifting to Central Asia, the textile breakthrough battle behind 420 million US dollars
Under the dual pressure of the US tariff impact and intensified competition in Southeast Asia, China's textile industry resolutely shifted its focus to Central Asia. At the Second Central Asia-China Forum on Industrial Capacity Cooperation and Investment Cooperation, China and Kazakhstan signed a total of 58 commercial documents, with a total amount exceeding 24 billion US dollars. Xinjiang Lihua Group will invest 420 million US dollars in the Turkestan region to build a complete cotton industrial cluster, covering the three major links of planting, processing and textile. It plans to establish 10 enterprises and create 4,000 jobs. The efficient transportation network of the China-Europe Railway Express will also become a new fulcrum. The enterprise has significantly shortened the delivery cycle by setting up production bases in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Can this strategic shift become the key move for China's textile industry to break through the tariff predicament?
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