The latest container export freight index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on the 8th was 2331.58 points, up 28.14 points from the previous week, and the weekly increase narrowed to 1.2%. In the four major routes, except for the western route, the Far East to Europe and the Mediterranean, the Far East to the East of the United States are showing an upward trend. Among them, the Southeast Asia route rose the most, reaching 12.13%, while the United States West route fell 2.01%.
Container ship companies have notified the 15th of this month, the European line per large box freight rate to rise to 5200-5500 US dollars, about 700-1000 US dollars, each different, the United States line has no price increase plan.
After the implementation of the reduction measures for the European line, the freight rate performance of the Far East to Europe line is relatively strong this week, and the freight rate has rebounded continuously. Freight forwarders pointed out that although the peak season of the container shipping market has passed, the price increase of the European line mainly relies on the control of cabin and the reduction of classes and the strategy of the shipping company to push up the new long term price in January next year.
In contrast, the US line had a smaller decline, and this round of rebound is not as strong as the European line. Due to the shortage of goods in the fourth quarter, the freight rate of the United States is expected to be gradually reduced, and the freight rate of the United States West line has fallen below $4,000 this week, maintaining between $3,700 and $3,900, while the United States East is maintained between $4,500 and $4,600.
Although the increase has been restrained from the previous two weeks, the industry still has different views on the future trend of freight rates. There are views that freight rates in the fourth quarter are expected to remain high, coupled with the first half of next year Europe and the United States line long term price may be better than this year, which will provide confidence for shipping company operations.
Shipping giants Maersk and Matson Shipping both reported healthy operating conditions in the third quarter, helped by higher freight rates, and both companies were optimistic about earnings momentum in the fourth quarter.
In addition, a number of shipping companies put forward their views on the market outlook for next year, pointing out that the geopolitical issues in the Red Sea have not changed, and the demand for ships that circumnavigate the Cape of Good Hope is large and will continue to circumnavigate next year. In the context of rising costs, freight rates are more likely to rise than fall. At the same time, in the first half of next year, the long term price of the US line is better than the same period this year, and the European spot market price is also higher than the same period last year, and the contract price of the European line is expected to rise next year.
On the other hand, after the election of Trump, the market worries that the tariff war may break out again, leading to the recent emergence of the North American line. Although the fourth quarter is not the traditional shipping season, but in the space crowding out effect, freight rates showed an upward trend. This bullish factor is expected to boost the market performance.
Although the increase of container export freight rate index has been restrained, the future freight rate trend is still affected by a variety of factors. Shipping companies need to pay close attention to market dynamics and flexibly adjust operational strategies to deal with potential risks.
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