Economists believe the United States could impose tariffs of nearly 40 percent on imports from China next year, a move that could shave up to 1 percentage point off the world's second-largest economy's gross domestic product (GDP), according to a poll published by Reuters.
Analysts believe that as Trump is about to take office, China's economy will face greater pressure in 2025, the impact of US tariffs is the biggest uncertainty, real difficulties such as the downturn in the property market also make China's economy more vulnerable, and it is crucial to introduce more stimulus economic policies.
Reuters conducted a special survey of more than 50 economists from November 13 to 20, and the median estimate of more than 50 analysts polled showed that the United States may impose 38 percent tariffs on China early next year, which is expected to drag down China's economic slowdown by up to 1 percentage point in 2025.
"The 60 per cent tariff is not expected to be immediately imposed in 2025," said Timothy Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at ANZ.
He believes that the new US administration will return to the original plan of Trump 1.0. The baseline scenario is that tariffs on China will be implemented in two steps: first, 30% tariffs will be reinstated on items on tariff Lists 1-3, and 15% tariffs will be imposed on items on List 4A/B, which will increase the average tariff from 13% to 22%; The second is to impose punitive tariffs of 10-15% on all listed goods, by which time the average tariff level will be raised to 32-37%.
Morgan Stanley also expects that the United States may announce its full tariff plan in advance as soon as the first quarter of 2025, and implement it in phases from 2025-26.
A majority of respondents said they did not expect a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods to be imposed in early 2025 because it could fuel domestic inflation in the United States.
Chang Jian, chief China economist at Barclays Bank, believes that China's export performance in 2025 depends on the timing of possible U.S. tariffs, which is still an unknown. Even if the new administration moves very quickly, tariff details are expected to be announced as early as the end of the second or early third quarter.
On the impact of higher tariffs on China's economy, the median estimate of respondents showed that the U.S. tariff shock could shave about 0.5 to 1 percentage point off China's GDP growth in 2025 from a year earlier.
Analysts expect more new stimulus measures to be announced next.
"The rise of Trump is expected to further open up domestic policy space,... More incremental policies are on the way, "said Xiong Yuan, chief economist at Guosheng Securities.
He predicted that China's GDP target growth rate in 2025 May still be set at a high level of about 5%, closely watching the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference in December, and the National People's Congress in March next year on the specific deployment of the deficit-to-GDP ratio, special debt quota, special debt quota, etc.
"We believe there is still time for the Chinese government to observe and respond to U.S. policy and its impact on China's growth before rolling out a policy response at a later stage," said Jian Chang, chief China economist at Barclays.
For now, however, most economists surveyed maintain their median economic growth forecasts at 4.8 percent this year and 4.5 percent in 2025, in line with pre-election forecasts, and expect growth to slow further to 4.2 percent in 2026. They are waiting for the Trump administration's trade policy with China and may downgrade their forecasts.
Of the 23 economists surveyed,19 believe that the fiscal and monetary stimulus measures recently announced by the Chinese government have had a limited impact on the economy and more stimulus is needed. Only four thought the measures would boost economic growth.
Market analysts point out that China may introduce new stimulus measures in the coming weeks to help ease the impact of the Sino-US trade tensions on the economy. Analysts expect China's slowdown to continue despite policy support.
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