Recently, Trump has been making frequent moves on the issue of tariffs, and the "Rashomon" of the US-Vietnam tariff agreement has drawn much attention. On July 2nd, Trump made a high-profile announcement on social media that the United States and Vietnam had reached a tariff agreement. He claimed that the United States would impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods, and that re-export trade through Vietnam would be subject to a 40% tariff, with Vietnam having zero tariffs on the United States. The news shocked the world. If it is true, it means that Vietnam seems to have made significant concessions to the United States.
However, the next day, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Vietnam stated that trade negotiators were still coordinating with the US side to finalize the details of the agreement. In the face of Trump's firm claim that "the US and Vietnam have reached a trade agreement", the Vietnamese government and mainstream media remained silent.
In response, a White House aide argued that the Vietnamese side was aware of the tax rate in advance. However, according to an investigation by the US Politico News Network, the Vietnamese side was angry because Trump unilaterally raised the tax rate from 11% to 20%, as the negotiation was about 11%, but Trump unilaterally raised the price at the last minute. Therefore, the Vietnamese side has not signed the agreement to date, and neither side has published any written agreement. Reuters also found that the official statement of Vietnam only vaguely mentioned "reaching a consensus" and avoided discussing specific tax rates. From this, it can be seen that the so-called "reaching an agreement" is very likely just a unilateral performance by Trump.
According to another US official who preferred to remain anonymous, the 20% tariff announced by Trump will replace the current benchmark rate of 10% and will be imposed on some other existing tariffs, such as the "most-favored-nation treatment" tariff. This will increase the average effective rate of the total tariffs actually levied to over 20%.
Vietnam's silence is the harshest slap in the face
In the face of Trump's "fait fait" declaration, Vietnam chose the coldest and harshest way of counterattack, refusing to acknowledge, deny or cooperate. This abnormal attitude has sparked a chain of questions: Does the agreement text exist? Has Vietnam signed? The White House has never been able to produce any written evidence.
Vietnam's composure stems from holding two crucial cards in its hand.
First, the economic lifeline is in China's hands. Despite Vietnam's huge export volume to the United States, 62% of its imported intermediate products in 2024 come from China, ranging from electronic components to textile fabrics. The industrial chain simply cannot bypass China. If domestic factories sacrifice their relations with China to please the United States, they might directly suspend operations.
Secondly, Trump's "record of contract breaches" is disheartening. In April 2025, he unilaterally tore up the mineral agreement with Brazil. In July, another threat of tax hikes was issued to 14 countries, and even Japan, an ally, was suddenly hit with a 25% auto tariff. Vietnam's hasty signing is very likely to become the next "waste paper".
Wang Yi received a "reassuring pill" from the Vietnamese side, with a straightforward signal
On the very same day that US media exposed the fraud of the agreement, Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh urgently met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Kuala Lumpur. Facing the Chinese side, Pei Qingshan made an immediate statement: "Vietnam will maintain close communication with China and work together to safeguard multilateral trade rules." This sentence may seem like diplomatic language, but in fact, every sentence carries profound meaning.
"Upholding multilateral rules" directly contradicts the unilateral tariffs of the United States. "Close communication" implies that there will be no backstabbing against China. More importantly, Pei Qingshan voluntarily proposed to deepen China-Vietnam cooperation in railways, finance and science and technology, all of which are areas that the United States cannot replace. The underlying message from Vietnam is very clear: We won't act alongside Trump anymore.
Vietnam's Fence-building Strategy and Future Choices
According to the data, the wall space in Vietnam is shrinking. The triangular chain of "Chinese technology + Vietnamese assembly + US market" determines that Vietnam cannot completely choose one side. History has also shown that the United States has always adopted a "use and discard" approach towards its "Allies". India, the European Union, Japan, and others have all suffered losses in their cooperation with the United States. If Vietnam believes that compromise can bring long-term benefits, it might underestimate the cruelty of Trump's "art of trade".
At present, the decision-making level of Vietnam is still observing. Recent actions have exposed its strategic anxiety: on the one hand, it is cooperating with China in the South China Sea to develop oil and gas, while on the other hand, it is allowing US aircraft carriers to visit Da Nang. While participating in the upgrading negotiations of the China-Asean Free Trade Area, it is secretly cooperating with the US "Friendly Coast Outsourcing" plan. This tightrope walking strategy, in today's era of intensified confrontation among major powers, any wavering could trigger a chain reaction.
Vietnam's "contradictory operation" is essentially a survival instinct of small countries in the competition among major powers, but history has proved that those who try to please all sides are often the first to be eliminated. When the United States cannot even guarantee the integrity of negotiations, if Vietnam continues to dream of "eating both sides", it may eventually become a victim. China's multilateral cooperation initiative might be the best way for Vietnam to avoid becoming a pawn.
In conclusion, the "Rashomon" tariff agreement between the United States and Vietnam is another manifestation of the United States' unilateral trade protectionism and also highlights the difficult situation of small countries in the competition among major powers. If Vietnam wants to achieve stable development in the complex international situation, it needs to have a clear understanding of the situation and abandon unrealistic fantasies. The multilateral cooperation advocated by China is based on equality, mutual benefit and win-win results, providing broad development space and a stable cooperation environment for all countries. Only by making choices that are in line with one's own long-term interests and actively participating in multilateral cooperation can one hope to occupy a favorable position in the global economic landscape and achieve sustainable economic development and national stability.
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