Brazil Overtakes U.S. as World's Top Cotton Exporter in 2023/24
Record Growth in Brazilian Cotton Production
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil surpassed the U.S. as the world's top cotton exporter in 2023/24. Brazil's cotton production has more than doubled over the past seven years, reaching a record 14.6 million bales (about 453 pounds per bale) in 2023/24. The growth in Brazilian cotton production has been driven by technological innovations such as genetically engineered seeds and an increase in planted acreage. Favourable weather conditions and stable input prices also further boosted its production.
Surge in Brazilian Cotton Exports Amid Domestic Stagnation
Despite larger production, Brazil's domestic consumption of cotton has not grown, but exports have surged. Over the past seven years, Brazil has managed to overtake Australia, India and the United States as the largest exporter of cotton. Brazil's weak currency and its counter-seasonal production have further contributed to the dominance of Brazilian cotton in global exports.
Challenges in U.S. Cotton Production and Exports
The United States has been a major cotton exporter since 1993. However, external factors, such as declining domestic consumption of cotton in the United States and weather fluctuations, have affected United States cotton production levels, which in turn have affected exports. Notably, United States cotton production in 2023/24 fell to its lowest level in 40 years as a result of a severe drought in Texas, the main cotton-producing region.
USDA Forecasts and Global Cotton Market Trends for 2024/25
The USDA's 2024/25 forecast shows an increase in U.S. cotton production, assuming normal weather conditions. If the projections hold, this would help the United States regain its position as a major exporter.
Meanwhile, the USDA also looks at trends in the global cotton market in 2024/25, where a surge in global cotton production is expected, with an increase in U.S. production expected to make up for a decrease in Pakistani production. However, at the global trade level, global cotton trade is expected to decline slightly due to continued volatility in China's import levels and a reduction in India's exports. It is worth noting that Brazil has already begun harvesting its 2024/25 cotton crop and is forecast to set another record for both production and area harvested this year.
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