At 17:00 local time on July 8th (5:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 9th), Trump posted on the Social media platform Truth Social that the United States will announce at least seven trade-related countries tomorrow morning and more in the afternoon.
Tomorrow morning (July 9th) in the US time corresponds to tonight (July 9th) in Beijing time. On the afternoon of July 9th, US time, which corresponds to the early morning of July 10th, Beijing time.
Yesterday, Trump sent letters to 14 countries respectively, announcing that starting from August 1st, he would impose designated tariffs on all products of these countries.
In a letter to the leaders of these 14 countries, Trump said that the United States has a significant trade deficit with these countries and the aim of the US side is to achieve "more balanced and fair trade". Specifically, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Tunisia and Kazakhstan will be subject to a 25% tariff. It is 30% in South Africa and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Indonesia 32% 35% in Serbia and Bangladesh; Thailand and Cambodia 36%; Laos and Myanmar account for as high as 40%.
Trump also issued a warning that if these countries respond by raising tariffs, the United States will increase tariffs by the same amount on top of the current rate. At the same time, he said that if these countries or their enterprises choose to produce products within the United States, they will not be subject to tariffs. If relevant countries open their domestic markets to the United States and eliminate tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, the United States may adjust tariff rates in accordance with the relations between the two countries.
Us officials have made a series of statements: The tariff policy will be extended again
White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said at a press conference on the afternoon of July 7 that Trump plans to sign an executive order to extend the 90-day moratorium on "reciprocal tariffs", postponing the implementation from July 9 to August 1.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Bessent said in an interview with CNN on the 6th that Trump will send letters to his trading partners this week, informing them of the tariff rates the US plans to impose. For countries that fail to reach a trade agreement with the United States by August 1, the tariff rate will be restored to the "equivalent tariff" level announced in April.
International media analysis suggests that the US move is aimed at increasing pressure on relevant countries to force them to make greater concessions. Some media have described this behavior as equivalent to "restarting a trade war".
Southeast Asia has suffered a heavy blow
The risk of export supply disruption has sharply increased
Most Southeast Asian countries have an export-oriented economy. The textile industry is an important sector and is highly dependent on the US market. Laos, Myanmar and other countries are facing high tariffs of 40%, which will cause a significant increase in the prices of their textiles in the US market, losing their price competitiveness and almost cutting off their exports to the United States. The relevant enterprises will face the predicament of a sharp decline in orders, which may lead to production cuts, bankruptcy, and a large number of workers may also lose their jobs.
The path to industrial upgrading has been blocked
High tariffs will deteriorate the local investment environment and make it more difficult to attract foreign investment. The profit margins of textile enterprises have been severely compressed, making it difficult for them to carry out technological upgrading and industrial transformation. In the long term, this will hinder the development of the textile industry in Southeast Asia and may even cause a significant decline in its position in the global textile industry chain.
China's textile industry: Fluctuations and opportunities coexist
Order "return flow" and "waiting and seeing" are intertwined
Some enterprises that originally placed their production processes in Southeast Asia to circumvent the US tariffs on China may reconsider transferring their orders back to China due to the increase in tariffs in Southeast Asia. However, some enterprises may choose to wait and see or shift to other regions that have not been subject to high tariffs due to concerns over subsequent changes in the US tariff policy towards China. Therefore, China's textile export orders may fluctuate to some extent in the short term.
The global competitive landscape may change
In the long term, the impact on the textile industry in Southeast Asia will cause changes in the global competitive landscape of the textile industry. If China's textile industry can take this opportunity to accelerate industrial upgrading, increase the added value of its products and enhance its competitiveness, it is expected to expand its share in the global market. However, if Chinese textile enterprises are unable to cope with pressures such as rising costs, they may also face the risks of order loss and a decline in market share.
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