Government Response to Trade Measures
At a press conference on September 3, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce responded to a reporter's question, pointing out that in light of Canada's implementation of several trade restrictive measures against China, China will launch an "anti-discrimination investigation" against Canada in accordance with relevant laws and regulations. This move includes anti-dumping investigations against Canadian imports of canola following World Trade Organization rules, as well as anti-dumping investigations against certain Canadian chemical products based on applications from domestic industries.
Potential Impact on Commodities
These measures could impact a wide range of major commodities that China imports from Canada. Historically, China has been Canada's second-largest trading partner, while Canada ranks among the top 20 of China’s trading partners. In 2023, the total import and export of goods between China and Canada reached 88.99 billion US dollars, marking a 7.39% year-on-year decline.
Trade Patterns and Deficits
The export value stood at 45.08 billion US dollars, down 16.1% year-on-year, while imports totaled 43.91 billion US dollars, up 3.6% from the previous year. The trade relationship between Canada and China has long been characterized by a trade deficit for China.
Textile Trade Analysis
According to the latest customs data and detailed analysis from WIND statistics, it is evident that in the past year, the trade of textile raw materials and textile products between China and Canada has resulted in a trade deficit for China. Specifically, during 2023, China's textile and apparel exports to Canada totaled $3,649,718 thousand, accounting for 8.1% of China’s total exports to Canada. Observing the import and export data of textile raw materials and products over the past year reveals a downward trend in bilateral trade at the beginning of the year, followed by a positive monthly increase in the second quarter for China's textile exports to Canada. Concurrently, the volume of textile raw materials and products imported by China from Canada also increased month by month after May.
Conclusion on Trade Resilience
From these data, we can conclude that even if future trade disputes arise between the two countries, the current trade data suggests that the impact of such disputes on China's imports of textile raw materials and products will be relatively small. Similarly, the effect on Canadian exports of textile raw materials and products will be limited. This indicates that China's trade structure in this field possesses a certain degree of resilience and stability, enabling it to withstand external risks and challenges to a certain extent.
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