Since the beginning of this year, the United States has imposed excessive tariffs worldwide, especially significantly increasing tariffs on Chinese products, which has led to a reorganization of the global clothing trade pattern and a continuous rise in supply chain risks. Against this backdrop, our clothing industry responded proactively, and the overall export remained stable in the first five months. According to statistics from China's customs, from January to May, China's cumulative exports of clothing (including clothing accessories, the same below) reached 58.2 billion US dollars, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month.
Export situation
The export volume has increased while the price has dropped
From January to May, the export of woven garments was 24.79 billion US dollars, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year. The export volume was 5.81 billion pieces, increasing by 8.3%. The unit price of exports decreased by 7.8%. The export of knitted garments was 25.95 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.4%. The export volume was 9.43 billion pieces, increasing by 9.8%. The unit price of exports decreased by 10.3%. The export of clothing accessories reached 5.5 billion US dollars, increasing by 1.4% year-on-year.
The trends of various product categories are differentiated
From January to May, the exports of overcoats/cold-proof clothing, trousers, shirts, sweaters and gloves grew rapidly, increasing by 5.1%, 6.3%, 1.8%, 11.5% and 4.6% respectively. Exports of dresses/skirts, underwear/pajamas, knitted T-shirts and corsets decreased by 6.9%, 6.1%, 11.6% and 12.4% respectively.
The EU led the gains, with Latin America performing strongly
From January to May, China's exports to Western developed economies (the United States, Canada, Europe, the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia and New Zealand) reached 31.93 billion US dollars, up by 4.2% year-on-year. Among them, clothing exports to the United States were 12.07 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.1%, accounting for 20.7%. Exports to the European Union reached 10.07 billion US dollars, increasing by 13% and accounting for 17.3%. Exports to Japan reached 4.71 billion US dollars, increasing by 2.4%, accounting for 8.1%. Exports to the UK reached 1.87 billion US dollars, an increase of 13.6%. Exports to Canada reached 1.05 billion US dollars, an increase of 13.2%. Exports to Australia were 1.91 billion US dollars, a 4% decrease.
From January to May, China's exports to the countries along the Belt and Road Initiative reached 25.12 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. Exports to ASEAN reached 5.37 billion US dollars, a significant decrease of 16.1%, accounting for 9.2%. Exports to the five Central Asian countries reached 3.84 billion US dollars, a significant decrease of 28.6%. Exports to South Korea reached 2.64 billion US dollars, increasing by 5.6%. Exports to Russia were 1.28 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.4%. Exports to Latin America reached 4.02 billion US dollars, increasing by 17.1%. Exports to Africa reached 3.41 billion US dollars, increasing by 6.9%. Exports to the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries reached 1.76 billion US dollars, a decrease of 7.1%.
In May alone, China's global clothing exports increased by 3% year-on-year. Among them, exports to the United States dropped by 14.3%, while combined exports to non-US markets rose by 8.3%. Exports to the European Union increased by as much as 28.4%. Exports to Japan increased by 6.6%. Exports to ASEAN dropped by 3.4%, with the decline narrowing significantly compared to the previous four months.
The top five regions have undergone a reshuffle, with significant fluctuations in performance
From January to May, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and Xinjiang ranked the top five regions for clothing exports, while Fujian was pushed out of the top five and ranked sixth. Exports from Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 7.7%, 3.7% and 11.6% respectively year-on-year, while those from Guangdong, Xinjiang and Fujian decreased by 10.3%, 13.7% and 16.7% respectively. Among other regions, Guangxi's exports increased by 27.8%.
China's market share in the European Union has rebounded
From January to April, China's share of US clothing imports was 18.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 2 percentage points. Vietnam's share of the US market was 17.5%, approaching that of China. From January to April, China's share of the EU's clothing imports was 26.5%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points. China's share of Japan's clothing imports was 47.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points.
International market situation
Imports in developed markets are recovering
From January to April, the demand for clothing in developed economies continued to recover. The United States imported clothing worth 31.03 billion US dollars, up 10.9% year-on-year. The EU's imports reached 34.24 billion US dollars, an increase of 13.8%. Japan's imports reached 8.76 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.2%. The UK's imports reached 7 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.9%. South Korea's imports reached 4.34 billion US dollars, increasing slightly by 0.1%. Canada's imports reached 4.19 billion US dollars, increasing by 10.9%. Australia's imports reached 3.14 billion US dollars, increasing slightly by 0.1%.
The major clothing exporting countries have seen strong growth
From January to April, Bangladesh's clothing exports reached approximately 16 billion US dollars, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.2%. Vietnam's clothing exports reached 11.12 billion US dollars, an increase of 12.6%. India's exports were approximately 5.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.7%. Turkey's exports were 5.65 billion US dollars, a decrease of 5.6%. Indonesia's exports reached 2.87 billion US dollars, an increase of 8%.
Trend Outlook
In the first five months, China's clothing exports maintained a stable trend under the pressure of the tariff war between China and the United States. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the pressure on the industry will become even more severe, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the superimposed impact of multiple risks.
The downside risks to the global economy are increasing
The OECD's economic outlook report on June 3rd lowered the global growth rate for 2025/26 to 2.9% (0.2/0.1 percentage points lower than the March forecast respectively). Among them, the growth rate of the United States in 2025 was significantly reduced by 0.6 percentage points to 1.6%, and in 2026 it was 1.5%. The eurozone will maintain 1.0% (in 2025) and 1.2% (in 2026). The report warns that the new round of tariffs by the United States and countermeasures from various countries involve 2% of global GDP. The impact has exceeded that of the trade war in 2018. Coupled with insufficient investment and consumption momentum weakening the recovery momentum, it may further push up inflation and curb household spending.
2. The issue of export tariffs to the United States remains to be resolved
After the Geneva economic and trade talks between China and the United States, the industry has witnessed a new round of "rush shipping". In the short term, exports to the United States may show a catch-up trend, but export enterprises still face multiple pressures. First, the rush to export will deplete orders for the second half of the year. The concentrated shipments during the tariff suspension period will significantly squeeze the order space for the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter. Second, the risk of global tariff extension is high. The 10% provisional reciprocal tariff imposed by the United States on many countries will expire on July 9th. Currently, apart from the United Kingdom, there has been no substantive breakthrough in negotiations. Thirdly, the high pressure of tariffs on China has not been lifted. After the addition of most-favored-nation tariffs, Section 301 tariffs, fentanyl tariffs and equivalent tariffs, the average effective tariff of the United States on China's clothing products has reached 55.2%, and for some categories, it has even reached 69.5%.
From June 9th to 10th, the China-Us economic and trade teams held a consultation meeting in London and reached a principle agreement on the framework of measures to consolidate the achievements of the Geneva Economic and trade Talks. The tariff suspension period will expire on August 12th, and there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the subsequent direction of tariffs between China and the United States.
3. The global e-commerce dividend is facing a contraction
Cross-border e-commerce has become the core growth engine for China's clothing exports. According to the China National Textile and Apparel Council's estimation, cross-border e-commerce accounts for over 40% of China's clothing exports. Starting from May 2nd this year, the United States has abolished the tax-free and T86 express customs clearance treatment for small parcels under 800 US dollars from China. After the Geneva talks between China and the United States, the tax rate for small parcels in the international postal channel was reduced to 54% or $100 per parcel starting from May 14th. According to Bloomberg, under the impact of the new policy, China's exports of small parcels to the United States plunged by 40% year-on-year to 1 billion US dollars in May. Platforms such as Shein and Temu, which rely on direct mail models, were severely hit. However, China's total global exports of small parcels still maintained a 40% growth, highlighting the resilience of the small, fast and flexible supply chain. However, many countries are accelerating the emulation of US policies: The EU plans to abolish tax exemption for packages under 150 euros and intends to impose a fixed handling fee of 2 euros. Japan plans to terminate the consumption tax exemption for goods priced under 10,000 yen. The shift in global small-scale trade policies is a foregone conclusion, posing a severe challenge to China's cross-border e-commerce going global.
In the long term, international trade games will become more complex, indicating that the export environment is likely to remain under pressure in the future. Facing multiple challenges, China's garment export enterprises need to accelerate the regionalized layout of their supply chains, deepen small-order, fast-response and flexible production, promote brand globalization and green transformation, and continuously enhance their competitiveness in technological innovation, green and low-carbon development, brand development, digital transformation and supply chain integration. Only by empowering cost reduction and efficiency improvement through technology and diversifying the market to disperse risks can we turn pressure into an opportunity for upgrading and reshape our competitiveness in the face of global trade changes.
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