Recently, the frequent changes in the US tariff policy have continuously stirred up the "pool of spring water" in the global trade market.
Tariff policies are fickle, and time limits have become a "variable bargaining chip"
On April 2nd, Trump announced the imposition of so-called "reciprocal tariffs", a move that was like a bombshell, instantly causing a sharp drop in the US financial market. Under pressure from multiple sides, on April 9th, Trump announced that he would suspend the imposition of high "equivalent tariffs" on some trading partners for 90 days, but still maintain the "benchmark tariff" of 10%. At the same time, he issued an "ultimatum" to US trading partners, demanding that they complete negotiations with the US by July 8th.
July 9th is the 90-day deadline for the US government to suspend the so-called "reciprocal tariffs", with only a little over a week left until that deadline. However, Trump later added that of course he could also choose to extend it, and that was not a big deal. Before this, Trump had said last Friday that the government could do whatever it wanted with this deadline, including extending or shortening it. The uncertainty of tariff policies has left global trading partners confused.
The trade negotiations have been progressing slowly, and the US has unilaterally "played its cards"
Last Friday, US Treasury Secretary Jason Bassent also said, "Some countries have proposed very good agreements to us, but it may not be possible to complete all negotiations before the president's tariffs on specific countries resume effect on April 2." If we can reach agreements with 10 to 12 of the 18 important trading partners - and another 20 important trade relations - then I think we can complete all trade negotiations before Labor Day in the United States (September 1st).
After the United States announced the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs", it began trade negotiations with many countries, but the process has been extremely difficult. As of now, the United States has only reached an agreement with the United Kingdom, its major trading partner. However, this agreement is more like a framework for ongoing negotiations rather than a final deal.
It is learned that in the coming days, the United States will send letters to hundreds of countries, including Japan, unilaterally informing them of the tariff rates on goods exported to the United States instead of continuing trade negotiations.
In the interview, Trump elaborated on the content of the letters, which would actually state: "Congratulations! We will allow you to trade in the United States of America. You will pay a 25% tariff, or 20%, 40% or 50%..." The trade agreement ends here." He emphasized that the letter would be sent out soon and said, "We don't need a meeting. We understand the situation and we have all the data."
This tough and unilateral approach undoubtedly adds fuel to the already tense trade situation.
Under the shadow of tariffs, some enterprises and industries are happy while others are sad.
The changes in tariff policies have had different impacts on enterprises and industries in various countries. According to the Vanguard Newspaper, the consolidated revenue of Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group in the first half of the year exceeded 900 billion Vietnamese dong, an increase of 8% year-on-year, and its profit nearly doubled. Some of its subsidiaries have seen their profits soar by 200% to 300% in order to meet the delivery deadline of July 5th.
However, American customers have significantly slowed down or even suspended orders after July 10th, and have begun to reevaluate the impact of the tariff policy. After negotiations between China and the United States in Geneva, although the tax rates levied by both sides have decreased, the actual tax rate still remains at around 50%.
In contrast, the tax rate in Southeast Asian countries is only 10%, and they import a large amount of fabric from China for their textiles. This has indirectly promoted China's textile exports to a certain extent. However, if the equivalent tariffs are really restored, textile exports will face a huge impact in the second half of the year.
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