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Current Cotton Sowing Area
India's Ministry of Agriculture data show that as of August 8, 2024, India's new year cotton sowing area reached 11.05 million hectares (165.75 million acres), compared with the same period last year (12.13 million hectares, about 181.95 million acres), a decrease of about 8.9%. Compared with the average planted area in the past five years, this reflects a decline of about 8.5%. Notably, the central cotton region of Maharashtra, Gujarat, and the northern cotton region of Punjab and Rajasthan, as well as the southern cotton region of Telangana state, show slightly larger new cotton planting areas than the same period last year. This increase in the southern region is attributed to the relatively large 2023/24 MSP purchase volume, which has improved farmers' income compared to other crops, resulting in a small expansion of planting.
Challenges to Meeting Planting Targets
Despite the Indian Ministry of Agriculture setting a target for the 2024/25 annual cotton planting area at 12,993,000 hectares, private ginners and cotton exporters express concerns. Based on current sowing progress and farmers' willingness to plant, achieving this target seems relatively difficult.
Weather Conditions and Planting Schedule
On one hand, in 2024, India's southwest monsoon arrived earlier than expected and brought abundant rainfall to cotton areas. The sowing period in the central and southern cotton regions is either normal or slightly ahead of schedule. However, in the northern cotton areas, delays in sowing have occurred due to reliance on canal irrigation to guard against pests and diseases. This means that the area for cotton sowing in late August to September is expected to be limited.
Global Market Pressures
On the other hand the recent Chicago corn, soybeans, wheat and other futures varieties fell across the board, the global grain market continued to weaken back, not only U.S. farmers suffered the most serious financial pressures since 2000 (the decline in prices of agricultural products and the rise in the cost of production, the farmers constitute a double whammy), but also India, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine and other major grain-producing countries farmers are in a difficult position to be able to change the planting, to adjust the The arable land has been expanded to cotton, and there is little room for growth in the late stage.
Production Forecast Adjustments
USDA's latest report shows that 2024/25 annual Indian cotton production of 5.334 million tons, down 109,000 tons from the July report, compared with 2023/24 annual Indian cotton production forecast to reduce 218,000 tons, a year-on-year decline of 3.93%, but several international cotton traders, cotton enterprises judge that due to the Indian cotton planting area reduction is larger than expected, coupled with the poor performance of cotton seeds due to the BT Yield Growth difficulties and variable weather in August-December, so the total output of Indian cotton in 2024/25 is expected to be only 5.1-5.2 million tons.
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