According to the latest news from CCTV, on June 22 local time, Kusari, a member of the National Security Committee of the Iranian parliament, publicly stated that the parliament has reached a consensus on closing the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway is located between Oman and Iran, connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It is the sole passage for about one-third of the world's seaborne crude oil trade and is known as the "world's oil valve". Although the conclusion of the Iranian parliament has been reached, Kusari emphasized that the final decision-making power still lies in the hands of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. This move has drawn high attention from the international community, and market concerns about the regional situation have risen rapidly.
The conflict between the United States and Iran has escalated. The US air strikes have directly targeted Iran's nuclear facilities
Behind the conflict lies the fierce confrontation between the United States and Iran. CCTV News reported that on June 21, the US military launched a fierce strike against Iran: six ground-drilling bombs were precisely targeted at the Fordo nuclear facility, and another 30 Tomahawk missiles were bombed other nuclear facilities. US President Trump said outright that the United States has launched a full-scale attack on the three nuclear bases of Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. U.S. officials disclosed that the B-2 stealth bombers were deeply involved in this operation, highlighting the tough containment stance of the United States against Iran's nuclear capabilities. This series of air strikes directly exacerbated the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, casting a shadow over the security outlook of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China responded: Maintaining the stability of international channels is a common responsibility
On June 23rd, at the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded to the statements made by the Iranian parliament. Guo Jiakun pointed out that the Persian Gulf and its waters are key hubs for global trade in goods and energy, and maintaining security and stability in this region is in the common interests of the international community. China calls on all parties to intensify mediation efforts, cool down the conflict and prevent regional unrest from having a greater impact on the global economy. This statement reflects China's concern for international energy security as a responsible major country.
The shipping industry is on high alert for the emergency rerun of supertankers
Due to the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, the global shipping industry's risk assessment of the Strait of Hormuz has suddenly increased. Caixin Media, citing ship tracking data, showed that two very large oil tankers, the "Coswisdom Lake" and the "South Loyalty", suddenly turned back in front of the strait on Sunday, June 21, and left the entrance to the Persian Gulf empty. Analysis suggests that this move stems from the shipowner's anticipation of a potential blockage in the strait - if there are delays at the loading port, oil tankers are more inclined to wait outside the strait to avoid the risk of being stranded. The oil transportation market should have entered the off-season, but freight rates have soared against the trend. The Baltic Crude Oil Index (BDTI) shows that as of June 19th, the equivalent time rent (TCE) for the TD3C route soared to $57,758 per day, a 154% increase from June 12th and reaching a new high since April 2024. Market players are wary that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil freight rates will continue to rise, with the daily rental rate of VLCCS (Very Large Crude Carriers) possibly breaking through the $50,000 threshold, which will also drive up the freight rates of Suezmax and Aframax crude carriers.
Oil price premium and "worst-case scenario" warning
The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran has directly impacted the crude oil market. Although most analysts believe that the possibility of Iran blocking the strait is low, the market has factored in the geopolitical risk premium. If the worst-case scenario of Iran blocking the strait or regime instability occurs, historical experience shows that the international oil price will break through $100 per barrel - this critical point will trigger a chain reaction in the global energy market, affecting the inflation and economic recovery process of consuming countries.
Geopolitical games and Rebalancing of Energy security
At present, the fate of the Strait of Hormuz hangs in the final decision of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. The international community closely follows the movements of all parties, while the market is in a game between risk premium and rational expectations. Analysts point out that regardless of whether Iran takes blockade actions or not, the prolongation of regional conflicts has forced the world to reevaluate energy supply security, and the diversification of transportation routes and alternative energy layouts may accelerate. In the coming days, the trend of oil prices and the dynamics of shipping will become the core indicators for observing geopolitical risks.
Follow us for more info. wedding & event linen suppliers wholesale Readortex, official website and B2B online store