On November 6, Beijing time, the much-anticipated 2024 US election finally came to an end.
Xinhua News Agency news: US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump announced victory in the 2024 presidential election on the morning of the 6th.
According to CCTV news, local time on November 6, the US presidential election counting is still underway. According to the latest estimates released by the Capitol Hill Newspaper, Fox News and other US media, US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump will gain more than half of the electoral votes, which is expected to lock the victory of the US presidential election.
The US election has just settled, and it has already caused a big shock to the market.
The Trump Trade kicks in
In recent weeks, with the approaching of the US election, there has been A trend of "Trump trading" in the market, and the most interesting is the number of A-share stocks "Sichuan great wisdom", just because of the homophony, there has been a continuous limit rise. In addition, during the election, the US dollar index rose sharply, the RMB exchange rate depreciated significantly, and crude oil also broke the previous days of upward trend and turned downward.
Renminbi falls sharply
On November 4, the offshore yuan suddenly rose more than 400 basis points against the US dollar, rising above the 7.1 mark.
However, on November 6, with the process of the US election, the RMB exchange rate fell sharply, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell below 7.13, 7.14, 7.15, 7.16, 7.17, 7.18, 7.19. The onshore yuan fell below 7.12, 7.13, 7.14 and 7.15 against the US dollar.
South China Futures believes that the impact of "Trump trading" on the exchange rate is more of a "strong dollar" and exerts certain depreciation pressure on the renminbi.
Crude oil prices plunged 2%
Crude oil prices have fluctuated in a narrow range in the past two weeks, and have recently shown a continuous rebound due to the end of the Opec + delayed production increase and the peak of refinery maintenance. However, on November 6, with the election results, the US and cloth oil fell to 2% in the day, and the US oil was close to 70 US dollars again.
S&p Global said in its short-term outlook report on the global crude oil market in September that in the second half of the year, U.S. crude oil production will increase by 182,000 barrels per day compared with the first half of the year, slightly lower than the previous forecast, but is expected to reach a record level in 2025. Earlier, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also forecast that U.S. crude oil production will rise to an all-time high of 13.7 million barrels per day by 2025.
Tariffs may be imposed
In addition to the immediate impact in the short term, the long-term impact of Trump's election is even worse to ignore, starting with tariffs.
In February this year, Trump said in an interview with US media that if he came to power, he would impose 60 percent punitive tariffs on China.
According to CITIC Securities estimates, if the "60% tariff" comes true, China's exports to the United States will fall by 16%, dragging down China's overall export growth rate by 2.3 percentage points, or $80 billion.
18, 19 years of the round of tariffs, eventually led to a large transfer of China's textile industry to Southeast Asian countries, re-export through transit trade, and according to Trump's remarks before, in order to return manufacturing, the current round of US tariffs may become universal, it is difficult to bypass tariffs through transit trade.
Trump's economic plan will trigger the "reflation risk" in the United States, supporting the strengthening of the dollar and the pressure on US Treasuries. Mr Trump's economic plans, if implemented in full, would lead to massive deficits. At the same time, domestic tax cuts, superimposed tightening immigration policies and additional tariffs will further amplify the contradiction between supply and demand in the United States, leading to the upward risk of "reflation" in the United States.
In addition, the international geopolitical situation, whether it is Russia and Ukraine or Palestine and Israel, may undergo major changes after Trump's election, which will have a long-term impact on crude oil, global shipping and trade.
A wave of orders may come
For textile enterprises, whether it is directly exported or re-exported through Southeast Asia, Mexico and other countries, the United States, as the world's largest consumer, is a market that cannot be ignored.
After the election of Trump, the market generally expects that the future tariff amount will increase, which may promote the order tide in the market to a certain extent.
On the other hand, if the external demand is reduced, in order to maintain the smooth operation of the economy, the domestic may adopt a larger stimulus consumption plan, the West is not bright in the East, the future domestic market may replace foreign trade as the main engine of economic growth to a certain extent.
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